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Global groundwater resources are under strain, with cascading effects on producers, food and fibre production systems, communities and ecosystems. Investments in biophysical research have clarified the challenges, catalysed a proliferation of technological solutions and supported incentivizing individual irrigators to adjust practices. However, groundwater management is fundamentally a governance challenge. The reticence to prioritize building governance capacity represents a critical ‘blind spot’ contributing to a low return on investment for research funding with negative consequences for communities moving closer towards resource depletion. In this Perspective, we recommend shifts in research, extension and policy priorities to build polycentric governance capacity and strategic planning tools, and to reorient priorities to sustaining aquifer-dependent communities in lieu of maximizing agricultural production at the scale of individual farm operations. To achieve these outcomes, groundwater governance needs to be not only prioritized but also democratized. 

Abstract Climate extremes cause significant winter wheat yield loss and can cause much greater impacts than single extremes in isolation when multiple extremes occur simultaneously. Here we show that compound hot-dry-windy events (HDW) significantly increased in the U.S. Great Plains from 1982 to 2020. These HDW events were the most impactful drivers for wheat yield loss, accounting for a 4% yield reduction per 10 h of HDW during heading to maturity. Current HDW trends are associated with yield reduction rates of up to 0.09 t ha⁻¹per decade and HDW variations are atmospheric-bridged with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We quantify the “yield shock”, which is spatially distributed, with the losses in severely HDW-affected areas, presumably the same areas affected by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Our findings indicate that compound HDW, which traditional risk assessments overlooked, have significant implications for the U.S. winter wheat production and beyond.